June 13, 2003
経済効果
阪神優勝 の経済効果は1133億円。一見すごいように見えるが、本当にそうなのだろうか？ そう思って、いろいろな経済効果を調べてみた。
最近の話だと、イラク戦争・SARS流行による旅行者減少の経済効果 は約1,700億円。せっかく阪神が優勝しても、帳消しになって借金まで出来てしまう。おそるべしイラク＋ウィルス。
よく問題になる公共事業モノとしては、例えば びわこ空港開港の経済効果 として、2470億円。阪神優勝の2.2倍。言うなれば2.2阪神優勝。建設費は1580億円（1.4阪神優勝）なので、開港時点で元を取り返せるってさ。うーん、お手盛りの香り。
そういえば、来年度から新札になるって知ってた？ 新紙幣発行に伴う経済効果は、経済産業省によれば、なんと1兆1500億円。なんと10阪神優勝！
でも自販機の新札対応って、新しい価値は何も生み出してないな。経済効果って単語に騙されそうだ。
さて規模を縮小することになった愛知万博。日本政策投資銀行の算出によれば、その経済効果は、1.4兆円。12阪神優勝。
わお、万博ってすごいのね。そういや筑波博にはチャリンコで行ったな。最終日には半額でコスモ星丸グッズを買った気がするけど、この消費も経済効果に含まれるのだろうなぁ。
昨年全国を駆け抜けたW杯熱。ワールドカップ開催に伴う経済効果は、電通総研の試算によれば3.2兆円。28阪神優勝。しかし現実には、売れたのはプラズマTVだけかも？
ちなみに長野五輪の経済効果は2.3兆円（20阪神優勝）。この時の目玉はまだブラウン管ハイビジョンだった ;-)
しかし、これらの巨大イベントを差し置いて、堂々の巨大経済効果をもたらした、特定個人による事件があるのだ。
第一生命経済研究所によれば、雅子さま出産による経済効果は、なななんと14兆円！ おい、ほんとかよ。
しかし、その根拠ってのが「日本人の気持ちを明るくして消費を刺激するので」って、あまりにアバウトなロジックをなんとかしたほうがよいのではなかろうか…
まぁそんなわけで、雅子さま出産は、124阪神優勝だということがわかったのだった。これを阪神優勝周期と乗算すると、124×21＝2604年分の価値ってことだ。千年女王よりすごいな。ああ、意味不明だ。
ちなみに個人的には、この経済効果がもっとも興味深く、説得力のある数字でした。なんと6.5兆円。しかし稼動エネルギーの２割では、少ないと思うな。たぶん45%くらいは消費してると思うぞ。
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